The mobile games market has experienced several shifts over the years, from casual games to hypercasual and now to the hybridcasual model. However, the market is reaching a point of saturation, and changes in app tracking transparency pose a challenge for developers. In this guest post, Allison Bilas, COO of GameAnalytics, provides her expert insights into the mobile games market’s history, its current state, and its potential future. Bilas points out significant changes within the industry and discusses the resurgence of casual games.

The Evolution of the Mobile Games Market

Those working in the games industry know that it goes through cycles. In the early days of mobile gaming, casual games dominated downloads. Then, hypercasual games emerged and gained popularity. Now, there is a shift back towards casual games, with developers showing interest in the hybridcasual model. But what do these terms mean, and how did we get here?

Categorizing the Market

To understand the current mobile market, it’s helpful to categorize game types into five broad categories:

• Hypercasual: These are pick-up-and-play games that are enjoyed briefly before moving on to the next one. They feature simple one-touch gameplay mechanics and rely heavily on ad-driven revenue.
• Hybridcasual: This model combines the simplicity of hypercasual games with a deeper layer of progression and the inclusion of in-app purchases. Habby, the publisher of games like Archero and Sssnaker, is a leader in the hybridcasual space.
• Casual: This category includes genres like puzzle games (match-3, merge) and endless runners. Casual games target a wide audience, incorporate in-app purchases, and offer accessible gameplay mechanics. Examples include Candy Crush Saga, Subway Surfers, and Merge Mansion.
• Midcore: These games have deeper gameplay features but remain accessible to a wide audience. Titles like Clash of Clans, Brawl Stars, and Marvel Strike Force fall into this category.
• Core: Core games encompass various genres, from hardcore strategy titles like Game Of Thrones Conquest to shooters like PUBG Mobile. Some of these games rely heavily on monetization, especially in 4X strategy games.

The Growth of Hypercasual

When I started in the industry 12 years ago, hypercasual wasn’t even a term. Casual games, like Candy Crush Saga and Angry Birds, dominated the market in terms of downloads. During that time, there were games with simple gameplay mechanics, such as Crossy Road and Bejeweled Blitz. However, the mobile ads and revenue generation landscape was still developing, with premium games and in-app purchases being the primary sources of revenue.

As the mobile market became saturated and more competitive, casual games started incorporating deeper monetization and gameplay features, as seen in titles like Gardenscapes and Homescapes. Live operations became crucial for success. At the same time, the mobile ads industry matured, and early publishers saw an opportunity to use user acquisition arbitrage as their primary business model by combining it with simple one-touch gameplay mechanics. This led to the emergence of hypercasual games, as described by Johannes Henize. These games relied solely on ad revenue, had simple graphics, and experienced rapid development cycles.

In 2022, hypercasual games accounted for 29% of total mobile game installs, generating approximately 17.5 billion downloads worldwide. However, the hypercasual business model has faced significant challenges due to Apple’s deprecation of the identifier for advertisers (IDFA) and changes in app tracking transparency. Acquiring players has become more expensive, and there is a need for hypercasual developers to evolve their monetization and retention mechanics. This has led to the rise of hybridcasual games and a potential revival of casual games.

The Future of Casual Games

Hypercasual game developers are now shifting from mass content production to a focus on game adaptation and growth. Instead of constantly searching for the next big hit, developers are adapting successful hypercasual games into hybridcasual or casual titles. This transition requires a change in skillset but allows for continuous releases within the same game in a live operations setting.

An alternative approach is for developers to design games with mass market appeal from the start while integrating deeper monetization features. This is the route taken by companies like Habby, SayGames, Homa, and Kwalee, leading to the emergence of hybridcasual games that blur the line between hypercasual and casual.

Similarities Between Hypercasual and Casual Games

Despite their different business models, there are surprising similarities between hypercasual and casual games. According to GameAnalytics data, there is little difference in retention rates between the two genres. Both casual and hypercasual games exhibit similar retention rates on day 1 (37% for casual and 38% for hypercasual) and day 7 (10% for casual and 12% for hypercasual). This suggests that hypercasual games possess innate similarities to casual games.