Forecast for the hypercasual market in the second half of 2023 | Pocket

The Future of the Hypercasual Games Market

The hypercasual games market has had a significant impact on the world of mobile games in recent years. These simple yet addictive games have captured the attention of gamers from all backgrounds and skill levels. However, some believe that the hypercasual model may not have a bright future ahead. In this article, Azur Games publishing lead Sergey Martinkevich provides market analysis on the performance of the hypercasual model in 2023 and what we can expect in the future.

The Current State of the Hypercasual Games Market

We have put together a comprehensive report with graphs and figures to help you understand the current state of the hypercasual games market as of mid-year 2023. This report includes insights into which genres developers should consider exploring in the near future and which ones require careful analysis. We will also discuss intriguing trends and market fluctuations.

Market Analysis for Sustainable Growth

Stability in revenue within a genre does not necessarily indicate its future potential for developers. A decline in stability may signal a growth area, while a drop in downloads for a specific genre may indicate a decline. It is important for developers to have a thorough understanding of market analysis to sustain or enhance their standing in the industry.

The Challenges of the Hypercasual Genre

The hypercasual games market is facing similar challenges as the casual and core game sectors. However, this does not mean that the genre is dying. While the market size has remained stagnant, there is still competition and potential for growth. It is important for developers to adapt and evolve their game design and mechanics to stand out in a crowded market.

Downloads and Revenue at Azur Games

Azur Games has managed to maintain its leadership among publishers in terms of the number of downloads, despite the market stagnation. However, the situation is more complex than it seems. While the downloads remain high, the eCPM (effective cost per thousand impressions) has decreased, requiring more resources for development and marketing. The market size is expected to remain the same, but there will be more competition, leading to a decline in advertising revenue. Publishers will focus more on in-house studios, and the days of raw prototypes will be over.

eCPM Trends

eCPM is a critical factor in the monetization of hypercasual games. The highest rates were observed during the COVID pandemic, but there has been a sharper decline than expected. The intense competition in the market has led to concerning numbers. The future of eCPM depends on global economic factors and the ability of developers to adapt to the changing market.

The Impact of New Releases

As of early July 2023, the top 300 games by downloads are mostly from 2020 to 2022, with 2022 having a significant share due to several big releases in December. The competition is fierce, but there is potential for new games developed with unique principles to make an impact. It is crucial for teams to change their development approach to break through in the market.

Analysis by Genre

Understanding the dynamics of downloads is essential when selecting a genre for development. The arcade line serves as an indicator for the hypercasual genre as a whole. Puzzles remain a popular genre with solid performance, but the competition and decreasing eCPM require innovation to stay relevant. The idler genre is experiencing growth in both downloads and in-game purchases, and its complexity is increasing. Runners have seen a revival with a shift in development focus, while shooters have also seen a rise in downloads, especially with older titles.